The effects of the El Niño weather pattern on Thailand are becoming more evident, as the country experiences hot and dry conditions despite the onset of the rainy season on May 22. The Meteorological Department predicts that this year’s total rainfall will be around 5% below the annual average, potentially leading to water shortages and prolonged dry periods.
The El Niño phenomenon is expected to continue until February 2024, with its peak anticipated in August and September. Thailand’s northern and northeastern regions may experience heavy rain and flash floods due to the passage of one or two tropical storms.
Concerns have been raised by Nipon Puapongsakorn, a distinguished fellow at the Thailand Development Research Institute, regarding the agricultural sector, particularly the durian crop, which requires substantial water during its four-month growth period. Water shortages could potentially lead to conflicts between the agricultural, industrial, and service sectors.
Pisit Limlurcha, vice-chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, warns that El Niño could cause widespread drought in Asia, particularly affecting agricultural areas in Thailand. This could result in reduced crop yields, higher raw material prices, and have a negative impact on the country’s income, exports, and economy.
Chookiat Ophaswongse, honorary president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, states that it is too early to gauge the potential impact of El Niño on rice production, as it depends on the rainfall levels from July to September. However, other rice-exporting countries such as Vietnam, Cambodia, and Myanmar are also expected to be affected.
The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry, and Banking (JSCCIB) has proposed measures to address drought and water management, emphasizing the importance of ensuring sufficient water supply for agricultural production and exports. The JSCCIB also highlights the need to expedite negotiations to open new markets and enhance the industry’s supply chain to tackle challenges arising from the El Niño phenomenon.
The caretaker government is closely monitoring progress in water management and instructing relevant agencies to prepare for the impacts of El Niño, according to government spokesman Anucha Burapachaisri. The Office of the National Water Resources is developing comprehensive water management plans and improving infrastructure to enhance water drainage efficiency.
