Thai researchers are sounding the alarm regarding an upcoming drought crisis in Thailand. They attribute this predicament to the El Nino weather pattern, which is causing lower-than-average rainfall. To minimize the impact of the impending water scarcity, it is imperative to implement proactive measures and comprehensive water management plans. Recognizing the urgency of the situation, the Thailand Science Research and Innovation (TSRI) recently organized a conference on climate change, water resource management, and strategies for addressing future challenges. At the event, researchers and officials from various agencies gathered to exchange knowledge and insights.
During the conference, a research team supported by TSRI presented their findings, which indicate a high probability of reduced rainfall until 2028. Chalump Oonariya, a researcher from the Meteorological Department, explained that the effects of El Nino are expected to persist for the next five years, resulting in a decline in average rainfall. The southern regions of Thailand are predicted to face severe drought in 2025, with extensive drought conditions affecting larger areas by 2028.
In response to the ongoing Thai drought, researchers are conducting a study to examine the relationship between rainfall, streamflow, and soil moisture. The aim is to develop drought preparation strategies. Kanoksri Sarinnapakom, the leader of the climate and weather department at the Hydro-Informatics Institute, emphasized the importance of preparing for uncertainties caused by the lasting effects of El Nino, which include decreased rainfall and an increased likelihood of drought.
A presentation by Chaiyapong Thepprasit, head of the irrigation engineering department at Kasetsart University, focused on assessing the water storage requirements for the 2023-2024 dry season. The analysis, based on water flow data into the Bhumibol Dam in Tak province and the Sirikit Dam in Uttaradit province, estimates that the Bhumibol Dam will hold approximately 7.98 billion cubic meters of water, which is 44% above the average amount over the past 23 years. In contrast, the Sirikit Dam is projected to hold 3.21 billion cubic meters, which is 46% less than the average amount over the past 15 years.
While heavy rainfall is predicted between the upcoming month and August, Thepprasit mentioned that El Nino is unlikely to cause significant harm this year due to sufficient water supplies in the country. However, if low rainfall persists for an extended period, the drought situation in Thailand could worsen. Thanet Somboon, the director of the Bureau of Water Management and Hydrology, acknowledged the challenges of water management during the drought season. Despite the drought conditions, some farmers continue to cultivate rice on over 2.2 million rai of land, requiring the department to release water from dams to support them. Measures have been implemented to ensure adequate water supplies for both consumption and agriculture. Thanet stated that around 9 billion cubic meters of water are expected to be used and consumed next year, with provisions in place to meet the needs of consumption, preserve the ecological system, and allocate 5 billion cubic meters to the farming sector.
The World Meteorological Organization recently reported an increasing probability of El Nino developing later this year. If this occurs, it will have the opposite effect on weather and climate patterns compared to the long-lasting La Nina, resulting in higher global temperatures and drought conditions in Thailand. Following the conclusion of the La Nina phenomenon after three years, the tropical Pacific is currently in an El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral state, with a 60% chance of transitioning to El Nino between May and July 2023. This likelihood is expected to rise to about 70% between June and August, and further increase to 80% from July to September.
