Associate Professor Dr. Seree Suparathit, who serves as the Director of the Center for Climate Change and Disasters at Rangsit University and as Vice President at the National Disaster Warning Council Foundation, recently provided insights regarding the forthcoming weather conditions in Thailand. Dr. Seree’s Facebook post emphasized that while the end of the year in Thailand is not expected to be cold, the following year is projected to be exceptionally hot and dry.
Despite recent rainfall following the rainy season, particularly in the southern region, significant flooding has not occurred, and any inundation is expected to naturally subside. Notably, this year’s rainfall forecasts, which include models related to the El Niño phenomenon, indicate a trend towards decreased precipitation. However, it is essential to highlight that the amount of rainfall in September and October exceeded typical levels by approximately 30% and 19%, respectively, particularly in the northern and northeastern regions. Nevertheless, these accumulations still fall short of the usual annual averages, except in the northeastern region. Consequently, this year’s precipitation predictions remain subject to fluctuations and may require ongoing monitoring by farmers and agricultural communities.
While heavy rainfall and localized flooding are anticipated in September and October, an analysis using the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) reveals that many areas, particularly in the central and eastern regions, continue to face drought conditions over the past 3 to 6 months. This dry spell is particularly prevalent, except for the western and northeastern regions along the Mekong River.
Dr. Seree’s examination of temperature patterns from December to April in the years 2020 to 2024 shows that December’s temperatures are expected to be lower than the annual average each year, indicating cooler weather. However, an exception is foreseen for this year, where temperatures could rise by nearly 2 degrees Celsius, implying a milder winter. In contrast, the average temperature for April next year is projected to be 1.5 degrees Celsius higher than the usual, indicating an exceptionally hot period. These temperature fluctuations are attributed to climate change (global warming) and unpredictable weather conditions, notably the El Niño phenomenon.
The commencement of the second rice farming season relies on available water resources resulting from recent rainfall. Attractive rice prices are motivating farmers in many areas to engage in rice cultivation. However, it is vital to consider that the Chao Phraya Basin’s water supply for this year is approximately 62% less (around 2,300 million cubic meters) than the allocation of the previous year, which was over 78% (approximately 14,000 million cubic meters). This significant reduction may lead to a decrease in the rice farming area from 8 million rai to no more than 2 million rai, presenting a considerable challenge, particularly in areas outside the irrigation network, which accounts for over 80% of the northeastern region.
The combination of limited water resources, the expected drought, and heightened evaporation rates could result in adverse consequences, such as increased forest fires in the northern region, elevated PM2.5 dust levels, and heat waves in urban areas. While seasonal rainfall forecasts may be subject to inaccuracies, it is crucial for farmers to plan and prepare for potential weather fluctuations, as the cost of farming can be substantial without proper planning. Recent data from multiple models indicates that early rainfall next year may be less than the norm, suggesting a delay in the onset of the rainy season. Given these circumstances, areas outside the irrigation network, especially in the northeastern region, must be ready to address potential water shortages.
