The Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) has put forth three potential approaches for determining electricity tariffs in the first quarter of the upcoming year. The proposed tariffs could reach a maximum of 6 baht per unit. The ERC clarified that if alternative proposals lower than the three options are presented, further discussions will be scheduled for today.
Komkrit Tantravanich, the Secretary-General of the Energy Regulatory Commission, announced that the ERC has sanctioned the computation of the anticipated Automatic Tariff Adjustment (FTA) for the January to April quarter. The ERC office has been directed to publicize these estimated FTA costs, along with the strategy for addressing the actual expenses incurred by the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT), for public input. These details will be accessible on the ERC’s website from November 10 to November 24.
The initial option involves settling all of EGAT’s outstanding costs amounting to 95,777 million baht in a single term. This would result in a cost of 2.16 baht per unit, coupled with the estimated FTA retail rate reflecting costs from January to April at 64.18 satang per unit. In addition to the base electricity rate of 3.78 baht per unit (excluding VAT), this would raise the rate to 1.96 baht per unit, totaling 5.95 baht per unit, an increase from the current rate of 3.99 baht per unit.
The second option proposes repaying EGAT’s outstanding 95,777 million baht costs within one year, divided into three terms of 31,926 million baht each. This would lead to a cost of 1.14 baht per unit, combined with the estimated FTA retail rate of 64.18 satang per unit and the base electricity rate of 3.78 baht per unit. This would elevate the rate by 94 satang per unit, resulting in 4.93 baht per unit, compared to the current 3.99 baht per unit.
The third option suggests repaying EGAT’s outstanding 95,777 million baht costs within two years, divided into six terms of 15,963 million baht each. This translates to a cost of 89.55 satang per unit, combined with the estimated FTA retail rate of 64.18 satang per unit and the base electricity rate of 3.78 baht per unit. This would raise the rate to 69 satang per unit, totaling 4.68 baht per unit.
Komkrit highlighted a projection of a potential increase of over 60 satang per unit in electricity tariffs for the current year, leading to an overall rise in electricity costs. However, lower rate proposals than the three options provided would necessitate further deliberations with relevant agencies, as it could result in increased debt for EGAT in future electricity production costs and gas importers.
He added that adjusting gas prices uniformly across the system could be a method to reduce electricity production costs. However, this option falls outside the ERC’s jurisdiction, and its impact on agencies remains unclear, requiring joint discussions.
The outlined assumptions are grounded in calculations by EGAT and PTT Public Company Limited on electricity costs under the existing gas price structure. The ERC will consider all comments and suggestions, compile them, and issue an official announcement.
Furthermore, Komkrit emphasized the need to monitor the production of natural gas in the Thai Gulf, with hopes to increase production capacity to 800 million cubic feet per day from the current 200 to 400 million cubic feet per day. Additionally, the import of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) must be observed to determine whether it will involve long-term contracts or market purchases, as the former provides stability and lower costs, as reported by KhaoSod.
He also mentioned the importance of observing the import of gas from the new Natural Gas Trader and Wholesaler (Shipper), consisting of seven new players, to assess the possibility of any increase. However, as of the latest information from this year, where the ERC opened a quota for imports of 3 million tonnes per year, no other parties have utilized this aside from EGAT.
